Sunday, November 2, 2008

Remember What Happened to Obama in the NH Democratic Primary?

Here's a look at what the leading polls said heading into the New Hampshire Democratic primary:

Obama 42
Clinton 29

USA Today:
Obama 41
Clinton 28

Obama 39
Clinon 29

Obama 37
Clinton 30

Clinton 39
Obama 36

And Obama also underperformed his poll numbers in the Democratic primary in key battleground states Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Does this mean McCain has the election in the bag? Of course not. But what it does mean is that the polls showing McCain down a few points should not be taken as the Gospel truth, particularly given that 14 percent of voters are still undecided, and undecided voters are widely projected to break for McCain.

By the way, guess what was the leading theory for why the NH polls were so wrong in the Democratic primary? They failed to account for undecided voters, who overwhelmingly broke for Clinton.


1Peter3:15 said...

For an excellent review of the state of the polls, check out

Kiti said...

Hi, Neocon Latina, I discovered your blog a few weeks ago and have been reading ever since. I really appreciate a lot of your insights. I am a libertarian myself, rather than a neocon, but we share most views. It is refreshing to know that, despite what the shamelessly one-sided mainstream media may want us to think, there are many others in this country who do not buy into the Obama hysteria. We'll see today if the quiet but resolute conservatives plus some undecideds will pull us through.